Before Dec 1, 2026
Why it moved: +3 points at 01:45 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Iran war live: Trump warns US may have to ‘destroy’ rest of Iran — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 03:44 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 01:45 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 21:04 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 01:06 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 09:50 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 07:34 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 20:08 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 17:11 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Nov, 11:33 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting between now and December 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake any public statement or threat for an actual diplomatic meeting.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 74%