Before Nov 1, 2026
The market favoured No at 71% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +43 points at 19:57 UTC, after The New York Times: Ahead of Tight Race, Trump Exempts Some Canadian Goods From Tariffs — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 23 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 85% |
| 23 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 32% |
| 17 Oct, 06:47 UTC | 29% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump announces a new or increased tariff on Canadian imports with a specific effective date between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if no such official announcement occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake general trade tensions or existing tariffs for the required new presidential action.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 70%
- No 30%