OpenAI
Implied probability 12%
24-hour volume$146
Total volume$96k
Liquidity$96k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 22:00 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Oct, 18:21 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 12% |
| 28 Oct, 07:22 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the U.S. federal government acquires a stake in any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI's for-profit operating entity before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the deadline or the specific definition of "legal vehicle".
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%