France wins by more than 1.5 goals
The market favoured No at 71% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$198k
Total volume$199k
Liquidity$199k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 25% |
| 26 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 29% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if France wins the scheduled UEFA Nations League match against Belgium by a margin of two goals or more after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The outcome depends solely on the final score at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%