Switzerland
The market favoured Yes at 52% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$832k
Total volume$850k
Liquidity$850k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 95% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 89% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 52% |
| 29 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 53% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 52% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 51% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 52% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 51% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 52% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 50% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 14:03 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Sept, 07:38 UTC | 45% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Switzerland wins the UEFA Nations League match against Scotland in regulation time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. It resolves to No if Switzerland does not win within those 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Readers often mistakenly believe that a victory in extra time or via penalties counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%