France
The market favoured Yes at 52% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$7.1M
Total volume$7.2M
Liquidity$7.2M
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 48% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Sept, 10:16 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 19:16 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Sept, 11:57 UTC | 57% |
What counts
France wins the UEFA Nations League match against Belgium within the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. The outcome depends solely on the score at the end of regular time, not on extra time or penalty shootouts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%