Norway
The market favoured No at 61% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$3.4M
Total volume$3.5M
Liquidity$3.5M
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 14:10 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 11:37 UTC | 37% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Norway wins the UEFA Nations League match against Portugal after 90 minutes of play and stoppage time. The outcome depends solely on the result at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%