Above 4.9%
Implied probability 98%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves19 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if China's official unemployment rate for September 2026 exceeds 4.9%. It is No if the rate stays at or below that threshold. Readers often mistake the resolution date for the data release date rather than the specific month the statistic covers.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%