Real Madrid
The market favoured No at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$374k
Total volume$384k
Liquidity$384k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 22:51 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 16:52 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 01:30 UTC | 20% |
| 28 Sept, 21:05 UTC | 22% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Real Madrid wins the Champions League Women's match against Manchester City after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The result does not include extra time or penalty shootouts. Readers often mistake the final score after penalties for the winning margin.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%