Raphinha
Implied probability 11%−8
24-hour volume$54
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves13 Jun 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 10 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 11% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Raphinha must lead the Champions League in goals during the 2026-27 tournament for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome depends solely on his goal tally in that specific competition, not his performance for Barcelona or other tournaments. Readers often mistake the linked headline about him becoming captain as relevant, but leadership status does not count toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%