Above 50.25 million
The market favoured Yes at 51% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −25 points at 20:10 UTC, after The Guardian US: United Airlines CEO faces rightwing backlash after calling for US wealth tax — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 20:10 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 53% |
| 20 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 55% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 59% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 62% |
| 19 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 58% |
| 18 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 48% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 48% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if United Airlines reports carrying more than 50.25 million passengers in its third quarter of 2026. It resolves to No if that number is 50.25 million or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked news story about airfare for the actual metric, but only the official passenger count matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%