Before Jul 2027
Implied probability 20%+5
24-hour volume$8
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$16k
Resolves1 Jul 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 29 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Sept, 14:39 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement confirms that "The Last of Us" Season 3 will be released before July 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake casting news for a release date confirmation.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%