<140
Implied probability 5%−3
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$16k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 22:44 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 25% |
| 26 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 11:40 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump makes fewer than 140 posts on Truth Social between October 25 and October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if he makes 140 or more posts during that period. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the month rather than the specific October 31 cutoff.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%