a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump
Implied probability 10%+4
24-hour volume$10
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 04:42 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court agrees to hear a case mainly about tariffs set by Donald Trump before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if the Court does not take such a case within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Iowa for the relevant event, but only a Supreme Court decision on tariff cases counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%