Iowa
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved23 Oct 2026
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically enters Iowa between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not visit the state within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the news headline about a steel plant for the required event, but only his physical presence counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%