Alaska
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$60k
Liquidity$60k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 94% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present within Alaska’s geographic boundaries between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not meet this condition by that deadline. Readers often mistake the requirement for a public appearance or speech, but physical presence alone is sufficient.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%