Sudan / Sudanese
Implied probability 25%+17
24-hour volume$4
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 21% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump states that Sudan or Sudanese people are involved in the context of the linked story between October 1, 2026, at 10:00 am ET and November 1, 2026, at 12:00 am ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of the statement, assuming any mention by other officials counts, but only direct statements by Trump are relevant.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%