Oracle / ORCL
Implied probability 8%+2
24-hour volume$63
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 00:42 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 14:10 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 00:17 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Sept, 15:35 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 13:04 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 07:49 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 14% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly states Oracle or ORCL before October 1, 2026 at 12:00 am ET. The outcome is No if he does not make that statement by the deadline. Readers often mistake any mention of Oracle in news reports for a valid trigger, but only direct statements by Trump count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%