TSMC / TSM
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 15 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 99% |
| 14 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 64% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions TSMC or its possessive form in a statement made between October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET and November 1, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any news report about TSMC counts, but only Trump's own words matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%