Prediction Market / Predictive Market
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves28 Sept 2026
Why it moved: −4 points at 08:01 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Global property investors see signs of recovery in China, but wary of oversupply: JLL — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 08:01 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 18:52 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump uses the phrase "Prediction Market" or a variation of it in any statement between September 21, 2026 at 9:00 am ET and September 28, 2026 at 12:00 am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day on September 27 or assume any mention by other officials counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%