Melania
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolved24 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 23 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 99% |
| 22 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 80% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump states Melania or a plural or possessive form of her name after September 21, 2026 at 9:00am ET and before September 28, 2026 at 12:00am ET. The outcome is No if this specific statement does not occur within that exact timeframe. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the relevant deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%