Crypto / Bitcoin
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$41k
Total volume$50k
Liquidity$50k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 10:16 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 16:07 UTC | 10% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions "Crypto / Bitcoin" in any form after September 21, 2026 at 9:00am ET and before September 28, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistakenly believe that any general discussion of cryptocurrency or Bitcoin by other individuals counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%