Make Iran Great Again
Implied probability 1%−2
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves12 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 13:07 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 11:41 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 00:45 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump states "Make Iran Great Again" or a grammatical variation of that phrase before October 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any mention by others counts, but only statements by Trump resolve the market.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%