Above 45
Implied probability 87%+3
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +8 points at 22:09 UTC, after News Feed: FirstFT: Big majority of US voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, according to FT poll — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 2 Nov, 22:09 UTC | 87% |
| 2 Nov, 15:04 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 87% |
| 2 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 90% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 89% |
| 1 Nov, 23:57 UTC | 84% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Oct, 20:00 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 56% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 65% |
| 28 Oct, 20:01 UTC | 45% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump holds more than 45 rallies between January 1 and November 3, 2026. The outcome is No if he holds 45 or fewer rallies during that period. Readers often mistake the end date for the election day instead of November 3, 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 13%