Elon Musk
Why it moved: +6 points at 15:27 UTC, after The Verge: Could data center backlash flip Florida? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 49% |
| 2 Nov, 17:19 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Nov, 15:34 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 47% |
| 30 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump during his second term and before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about the National Medal of Science as the deciding factor, but only a pardon, commutation, or reprieve counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 49%
- No 51%