Crypto / Bitcoin
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$24k
Total volume$24k
Liquidity$24k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 19:31 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 86% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 87% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 78% |
| 21 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 74% |
| 20 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump mentions crypto or Bitcoin during a White House roundtable event that was originally scheduled for October 21, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the date of the original schedule for the actual date of the event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%