Immigrant / Immigration
The market favoured Yes at 58% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$15k
Resolved14 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 19:40 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions immigration during his Hispanic Heritage Month celebration on September 30, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not mention it at that specific event. Readers often mistake the date of the scheduled celebration for the actual day the remarks must occur.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%