Melania
The market favoured No at 58% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$41k
Total volume$46k
Liquidity$46k
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 99% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 61% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 57% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 10:41 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 09:43 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 07:04 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Sept, 06:15 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Sept, 04:23 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 57% |
| 24 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 00:55 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 00:23 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Sept, 21:59 UTC | 30% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump says Melania during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival ceremony on September 24, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not say her name in that specific context. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution event, but only the speech at the ceremony counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%