China (5+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 57% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$81k
Total volume$85k
Liquidity$85k
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 03:00 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 00:55 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 55% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 45% |
| 22 Sept, 21:59 UTC | 64% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions China five or more times during remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival ceremony. The event must take place at the originally scheduled date of September 24, 2026. Readers often mistake any mention of China in other contexts for a resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%