Boeing
The market favoured No at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$14k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 06:37 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 04:43 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 22:55 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions Boeing during his remarks at the state arrival ceremony for Xi Jinping. The event must take place on the originally scheduled date of September 24, 2026. Readers often mistake any other mention of Boeing by Trump or references to the helipad itself as sufficient for a Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%