Iran (5+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 61% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolved6 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 93% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 80% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 71% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 70% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 71% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 71% |
| 23 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 72% |
| 23 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 71% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 13:11 UTC | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 76% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 77% |
| 23 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 79% |
| 23 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 78% |
| 23 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 77% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 79% |
| 23 Oct, 09:00 UTC | 78% |
| 23 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 76% |
| 23 Oct, 05:32 UTC | 78% |
| 23 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 77% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 77% |
| 23 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 76% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 77% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 58% |
| 22 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 61% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 62% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 59% |
| 22 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 72% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions Iran five or more times during his Midterm Rally in Fort Myers, Florida, which is scheduled for October 23, 2026. The resolution depends solely on the count of references made at this specific event. Readers often mistakenly look for mentions of Iran in other rallies or news reports instead of focusing exclusively on the Fort Myers speech.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%