Crypto / Bitcoin
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$290k
Total volume$339k
Liquidity$339k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions Crypto or Bitcoin during his Midterm Rally in Clemson, South Carolina. The event must be the one originally scheduled for October 21, 2026. Readers often mistake this deadline as the cutoff for any rally he holds, but only that specific scheduled event counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%