Event does not qualify
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$22k
Total volume$55k
Liquidity$55k
Resolves23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 20:41 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 2% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying event occurs. The linked story about Trump rally rhetoric does not count as a qualifying event because it is not part of the resolution criteria. Readers often mistakenly believe that any significant news related to the topic triggers the market, but only specific events defined in the rules matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%