Iran (5+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 51% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$26k
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$32k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 01:01 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 22% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 58% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 58% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 55% |
| 7 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 55% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 55% |
| 7 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 52% |
| 7 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 52% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 52% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 51% |
| 7 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 49% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 53% |
| 7 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 56% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 57% |
| 6 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions Iran five or more times during his midterm rally in San Antonio, Texas, which is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Los Angeles and San Diego as the relevant event, but only the specific Texas rally counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%