Crypto / Bitcoin
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$96k
Total volume$136k
Liquidity$136k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 2% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump mentions Crypto or Bitcoin during his Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas. The event must be the rally originally scheduled for October 7, 2026. Readers often mistake any other speech or a different date as sufficient for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%