Crypto / Bitcoin
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$114k
Total volume$138k
Liquidity$138k
Resolved17 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 18:23 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 08:10 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions Crypto or Bitcoin during his Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio. This event must take place on October 3, 2026, as originally scheduled. Readers often mistake the location for any rally he hosts rather than this specific date and venue.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%