Transgender
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$37k
Total volume$53k
Liquidity$53k
Resolved16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 93% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Oct, 13:39 UTC | 94% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly says the word "Transgender" during his Midterm Rally in Mobile, Alabama, which was originally scheduled for October 2, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not say the word at that specific event. Readers often mistakenly believe any mention of transgender topics or speeches at other locations counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%