Vladimir Putin
The market favoured Yes at 83% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$19k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 93% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 94% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 93% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 94% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 88% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 88% |
| 9 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 83% |
| 9 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 86% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 79% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 09:09 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 85% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 47% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have any contact, including a phone call, during October 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution trigger, but only actual contact between the two leaders in that specific month counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%