Not this weekend (Oct 23-25)
Implied probability 8%−36
24-hour volume$855
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 6% |
| 19 Oct, 05:02 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump does not play golf between October 23 and October 25, 2026. The outcome depends solely on his actual participation in a round of golf during this specific three-day window. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a court order as the deciding factor, but only his physical presence on the course matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%