Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 10%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly calls for or endorses a global pause, pacing, or slowdown in frontier AI development before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not make such a statement by that date. Readers often mistake general criticism of AI or unrelated remarks about 'super intelligence' for the required explicit endorsement of a developmental pause.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%