Dario Amodei
The market favoured No at 94% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 18:20 UTC | 98% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 92% |
| 26 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 7% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump and Dario Amodei meet in person between now and October 1, 2026. The outcome is No if they do not meet within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story as evidence of a meeting, but only an actual in-person encounter counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%