Yes
The market favoured Yes at 63% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 95%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 89% |
| 30 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 83% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 88% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Sept, 11:11 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Sept, 19:46 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 62% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any Source Agency reports that the Trump administration issued rebates of at least $100 to at least 100,000 people before November 3, 2026. The market resolves to No if this specific threshold is not met by that deadline. Readers often mistake the initial removal of enrollees for the required rebate issuance.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%