Above 170 billion
Implied probability 95%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves28 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 8 Oct, 11:38 UTC | 95% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the total US trade deficit for the entire year of 2026 exceeds $170 billion. It resolves to No if that annual total stays at or below $170 billion. Readers often mistake a single month's high deficit for the final yearly result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%