Draw/Tie
The market favoured No at 62% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$200k
Total volume$314k
Liquidity$314k
Resolved6 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 06:24 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 48% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 45% |
| 30 Sept, 23:13 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 48% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 46% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 45% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 51% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 48% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 19% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 10:45 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Sept, 05:27 UTC | 11% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the India A versus Australia A men's professional Test series ends in a draw or tie. The outcome is No if either team wins the series. Readers often mistake the linked story about Australia and South Africa for the relevant match, but this market depends solely on the result of the India A vs Australia A series.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%