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South Africa

Resolved: No 25d ago

The market favoured No at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$634k
Total volume$900k
Liquidity$900k
Resolved16 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · South Africa
0%50%100%1%8 Oct, 03:11 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now1%
13 Oct, 09:33 UTC1%
13 Oct, 09:26 UTC3%
13 Oct, 08:40 UTC3%
13 Oct, 08:20 UTC4%
13 Oct, 07:15 UTC3%
13 Oct, 06:21 UTC3%
13 Oct, 05:15 UTC3%
13 Oct, 04:54 UTC3%
13 Oct, 04:15 UTC4%
13 Oct, 03:54 UTC3%
13 Oct, 03:27 UTC3%
13 Oct, 02:54 UTC3%
13 Oct, 02:07 UTC3%
13 Oct, 01:48 UTC2%
13 Oct, 01:28 UTC2%
13 Oct, 00:54 UTC2%
13 Oct, 00:28 UTC2%
12 Oct, 23:21 UTC2%
12 Oct, 22:01 UTC3%
12 Oct, 21:54 UTC1%
12 Oct, 21:26 UTC2%
12 Oct, 20:29 UTC2%
12 Oct, 19:34 UTC3%
12 Oct, 19:27 UTC2%
12 Oct, 18:54 UTC1%
12 Oct, 17:56 UTC2%
12 Oct, 15:47 UTC2%
12 Oct, 15:20 UTC2%
12 Oct, 14:42 UTC5%
12 Oct, 14:21 UTC7%
12 Oct, 13:55 UTC7%
12 Oct, 13:02 UTC4%
12 Oct, 12:49 UTC5%
12 Oct, 11:39 UTC4%
12 Oct, 11:00 UTC6%
12 Oct, 10:47 UTC8%
12 Oct, 10:22 UTC7%
12 Oct, 09:47 UTC9%
12 Oct, 09:27 UTC10%
12 Oct, 08:34 UTC12%
12 Oct, 08:27 UTC12%
12 Oct, 07:53 UTC13%
12 Oct, 07:28 UTC14%
12 Oct, 06:45 UTC13%
12 Oct, 06:02 UTC11%
12 Oct, 05:56 UTC13%
12 Oct, 05:18 UTC14%
12 Oct, 04:48 UTC14%
12 Oct, 04:16 UTC15%
12 Oct, 03:25 UTC15%
12 Oct, 02:46 UTC11%
12 Oct, 02:22 UTC12%
12 Oct, 01:56 UTC13%
12 Oct, 00:47 UTC11%
12 Oct, 00:28 UTC13%
11 Oct, 23:56 UTC13%
11 Oct, 22:34 UTC12%
11 Oct, 22:27 UTC13%
11 Oct, 21:56 UTC12%
11 Oct, 21:06 UTC14%
11 Oct, 20:59 UTC13%
11 Oct, 19:52 UTC14%
11 Oct, 19:24 UTC12%
11 Oct, 18:17 UTC14%
11 Oct, 17:57 UTC13%
11 Oct, 16:15 UTC12%
11 Oct, 15:49 UTC12%
11 Oct, 14:42 UTC8%
11 Oct, 14:29 UTC9%
11 Oct, 13:51 UTC12%
11 Oct, 12:55 UTC8%
11 Oct, 12:22 UTC8%
11 Oct, 11:20 UTC10%
11 Oct, 10:56 UTC12%
11 Oct, 10:27 UTC14%
11 Oct, 09:59 UTC14%
11 Oct, 09:27 UTC14%
11 Oct, 08:43 UTC24%
11 Oct, 08:25 UTC25%
11 Oct, 07:54 UTC18%
11 Oct, 07:20 UTC19%
11 Oct, 06:37 UTC19%
11 Oct, 06:13 UTC19%
11 Oct, 05:49 UTC18%
11 Oct, 04:16 UTC18%
11 Oct, 03:38 UTC19%
11 Oct, 03:13 UTC18%
11 Oct, 02:54 UTC16%
11 Oct, 01:59 UTC17%
11 Oct, 01:10 UTC17%
11 Oct, 00:51 UTC19%
11 Oct, 00:26 UTC18%
10 Oct, 23:55 UTC18%
10 Oct, 23:17 UTC19%
10 Oct, 22:39 UTC19%
10 Oct, 22:26 UTC19%
10 Oct, 21:47 UTC16%
10 Oct, 21:25 UTC19%
10 Oct, 20:53 UTC18%
10 Oct, 19:37 UTC18%
10 Oct, 18:46 UTC19%
10 Oct, 18:27 UTC17%
10 Oct, 17:55 UTC19%
10 Oct, 17:08 UTC18%
10 Oct, 16:48 UTC18%
10 Oct, 15:28 UTC18%
10 Oct, 12:54 UTC23%
10 Oct, 11:41 UTC25%
10 Oct, 10:24 UTC39%
10 Oct, 09:08 UTC49%
10 Oct, 07:57 UTC54%
10 Oct, 07:24 UTC53%
10 Oct, 06:51 UTC54%
10 Oct, 06:26 UTC53%
10 Oct, 05:59 UTC54%
10 Oct, 05:13 UTC54%
10 Oct, 04:47 UTC53%
10 Oct, 03:33 UTC54%
10 Oct, 03:13 UTC52%
10 Oct, 02:19 UTC54%
10 Oct, 01:59 UTC53%
10 Oct, 01:20 UTC54%
10 Oct, 00:59 UTC54%
10 Oct, 00:05 UTC52%
9 Oct, 23:59 UTC50%
9 Oct, 23:25 UTC53%
9 Oct, 22:58 UTC51%
9 Oct, 22:24 UTC53%
9 Oct, 21:51 UTC54%
9 Oct, 21:23 UTC53%
9 Oct, 20:27 UTC54%
9 Oct, 19:58 UTC54%
9 Oct, 18:56 UTC50%
9 Oct, 18:20 UTC54%
9 Oct, 17:46 UTC55%
9 Oct, 17:03 UTC53%
9 Oct, 16:02 UTC52%
9 Oct, 15:55 UTC53%
9 Oct, 15:21 UTC53%
9 Oct, 14:45 UTC53%
9 Oct, 14:09 UTC55%
9 Oct, 13:52 UTC56%
9 Oct, 13:28 UTC56%
9 Oct, 12:52 UTC63%
9 Oct, 12:24 UTC61%
9 Oct, 11:55 UTC63%
9 Oct, 11:15 UTC57%
9 Oct, 10:54 UTC61%
9 Oct, 10:15 UTC52%
9 Oct, 09:48 UTC49%
9 Oct, 09:20 UTC46%
9 Oct, 08:48 UTC54%
9 Oct, 08:28 UTC50%
9 Oct, 07:49 UTC42%
9 Oct, 07:23 UTC42%
8 Oct, 03:11 UTC48%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if South Africa wins the men's professional Test series against Australia. It resolves to No if South Africa does not win that specific series. Readers often mistake the start date of the first match for the deadline, but the outcome depends on the final result of the entire series.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 1%
  • No 99%

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