Above 1000
Why it moved: −4 points at 13:12 UTC, after The Verge: Just because Tesla’s Optimus is in production doesn’t mean it’s actually ready — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 23 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 31% |
| 17 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla reports producing more than 1000 Semi trucks in any single quarter before 2027. It resolves to No if this production threshold is not met within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the total number of trucks produced over time rather than a specific quarterly report.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%