Above 4.9%
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 15:35 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 10:04 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 07:49 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 50% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tencent’s text market share exceeds 4.9% during the week of September 21, 2026. The data source is OpenRouter, and the measurement applies specifically to model authorship. Readers often mistake the launch date of a new app for the relevant metric or deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%