Critical minerals
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if President Trump issues an executive action in 2026 that imposes tariffs on critical minerals and explicitly references them in the title, operative text, or fact sheet. The action must set a specific effective date for these tariffs. Readers often mistake general tariff schedules or annexes for sufficient reference, but the rule requires explicit mention in the main document.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 36%
- No 64%