Before Oct 1, 2026
The market favoured No at 56% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 86%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 24 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 86% |
| 24 Sept, 18:02 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 84% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 80% |
| 24 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Sept, 05:41 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 90% |
| 23 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and China publicly announce or confirm a new mutual tariff agreement between now and October 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked headline's January 10 date for the final deadline, but the actual cutoff is October 1, 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 86%
- No 14%