Yes
Implied probability 40%+9
24-hour volume$63
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves10 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 40% |
| 16 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 40% |
| 16 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 31% |
| 15 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if James Talarico’s margin of victory is larger than the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026. It resolves to No if his margin is smaller or equal to that average. Readers often mistake the deadline for election day instead of the specific polling snapshot time.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 40%
- No 60%